Like a Boss (Beck)

What can I say? Michigan State is on a roll. The Spartans are a bunch of Davids slaying Goliaths: they beat the defending-champs Kansas Jayhawks, they beat the #1-overall seed Louisville Cardinals, and they thwarted #1-seed UConn in the Final Four. Throughout it all, they've won keeping the games in the 60s and playing great defense. They're not exciting to watch, they don't have a single stand-out player, and they're one win away from winning the national championship thirty years after Magic led the Spartans to victory over the Hick from French Lick, Larry Bird.

While Michigan State is grinding out games, the North Carolina Tar Heels are smashing their opponents like a boss. They cruised to an opening-round win over Radford, they knocked off LSU by 12, throttled Gonzaga, stifled Oklahoma, and now they dispatched with Villanova like a red-headed step-child. Their performance was the complete opposite from last year's Final Four loss to Kansas, where they started slowly and found themselves in a 40-12 hole they couldn't crawl out of no matter how hard they tried. Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, and Co. are playing with confidence, they're running when they get the opportunities and locking down on defense. Lawson is the perfect point guard, Hansbrough can score but he's also scrappy and plays hard (annoyingly so), and Ellington will shoot the lights out.

Which means something has to give on Monday night. Michigan State either continues to knock off higher-seeded teams or UNC proceeds to pummel another opponent on their way to a fifth national championship, their second this decade. To be honest, Michigan State's lack of a true star player is to their benefit, because the Tar Heels can't focus on one player like they did with Blake Griffin. The Spartans have someone big step up every game, but they could also be at the end of that rope: Suton led them to a win over Kansas, Raymar Morgan lifted them to victory with 18 points over UConn after hitting one field goal in the last three rounds. To be honest, the Tar Heels play great team defense, and if you go down the line-ups and compare you'll see that UNC has the edge:

POINT-GUARD: Michigan State's Kalin Lucas v. UNC's Ty Lawson. Lawson is the ACC Player of the Year, averaged 16.5 points per game, 6.6 assists per game, and is the heart and soul of his team. As Lawson goes, so do the Tar Heels. Fortunately for them, he's been going all season, and his toe injury hasn't slowed him much. Lucas averages 14.7 points per game and 4.6 assists, which is definitely solid. Lucas is also the leader of the team, but he's just not on the same level as Lawson.

ADVANTAGE: UNC

SHOOTING GUARD: Michigan State's Travis Walton v. UNC's Wayne Ellington. Ellington is a dead-eye shooter, scoring 15.8 per game during the season and upping that average to 19.2 during the tournament. He's shooting 54% from the field and, more importantly, 48% from three-point range, including 5/7 against Nova. He's on a tear, and he doesn't play terrible defense. Overall, he reminds me a lot of Rashad McCants, a member of the Tar Heel's 2005 championship team who also loved to throw it up from downtown and could make jump-shots all over the court. With Lawson driving and kicking to Ellington, it's almost unstoppable. On the flip-side, Walton averaged 5.2 points per game during the season, and he hasn't done much better during the tournament, where he's averaging 6 points flat, including a scoreless game in the opening round against Robert Morris. Plus, of the 30 points he's scored in the tourney, 18 of them came in the second-round win over USC, when he shot 8-13. This is a clear example of a Spartan stepping up big in one game and ceding that label to another player in the next game, and Walton has vanished back into the wood-work on offense since. His plus is that he has played defense like a glove on the best scorers from the opposing team. Still, he can't shoot threes -- attempting 5 threes all season -- and Ellington has two inches on him, so I don't think this is much of a contest.

ADVANTAGE: UNC

SMALL FORWARD: Michigan State's Raymar Morgan v. UNC's Danny Green. Green is a senior averaging 13.2 points and 5 rebounds per game in the tournament, and he's made some clutch shots in games, though many haven't been close enough to warrant the adjective "clutch." Still, he's solid, nothing flashy about him, but he has gotten himself into foul trouble recently: he had 4 fouls against Gonzaga and Villanova. UNC will need him on the court to match-up against Morgan, and since he has the ability to hit mid-range jumpers he can help spread the floor and create driving lanes for Lawson. That said, he has to be hitting for it work, and he's only averaging 43% FG in the tournament. Meanwhile, Raymar Morgan was the latest Spartan to step up and actually play "clutch" in the fullest sense of the word. He had 16 points in the opening round win against Robert Morris, then hit one field goal and averaged 2.3 points per game against USC, Kansas, and Louisville. He showed up against UConn and had 18 points on 7/13 FG to go along with 9 rebounds and five steals. He played monster, even with the mask to protect his face after breaking his nose in the last round. The question is whether this performance is just a flash in the pan or if it's an indication of renewed confidence and success for Morgan. He's had bad luck all season, battling mono and walking pneumonia and now the broken nose, but he's never quit playing. And since I saw him play in high school at Canton McKinley, and since he has two inches on Danny Green, I have to give him props.

ADVANTAGE: Michigan State

POWER FORWARD: Michigan State's Delvon Roe v. UNC's Deon Thompson. This was a toss-up between Thompson and Hansbrough as neither truly plays the PF position or the C, but since Hansbrough is an inch taller than Thompson, and since he'll be guarding the Spartans' center Goran Suton, I decided to compare Roe with Thompson. Thompson averaged 10 points per game in the season but only 6.6 in the tournament, and his rebounds have also fallen from 5.8 in the season to 2.25 in the tournament. It's hard to figure out what exactly is going on with Thompson, and he plays a straight post game, but you can't really even say that he has all the intangibles necessary to make him a great player. He's efficient, let's just say that. Thompson does have experience, though, 3 years worth. Meanwhile, Roe averaged 5.3 points per game in the season and only 4.0 in the tournament. His rebounds similarly fell from 5.1 in the season to 3.2 in the tourney. He's a freshman, and he did have some outstanding defensive plays against UConn that warranted applause. This seems to be the weakest position on both teams, and it's a toss-up for which player is better. Roe hasn't had his break-out game yet, and this could be his chance to erupt for a huge game, but I doubt it since he doesn't shoot great, which will force him into the post against Thompson, who has 20 pounds on him. This one's hard but, I'll have to say . . .

ADVANTAGE: UNC

CENTER: Michigan State's Goran Suton v. UNC's Tyler Hansbrough. Hansbrough was the Naismith Player of the Year and ACC Player of the Year in 2008, and he broke the ACC scoring record this season. He averaged 20.8 points per game and 8.2 rebounds in the season, with 17.4 points and 8.0 rebounds in the tourney. As much of a douche-bag as he can be, he plays hard and works for rebounds and loose balls, the kind of motor that you can't teach and can tip the scales in any game. He's also a senior who's only gap on his impressive resume is a national championship, and he's definitely playing his balls off in order to add that hardware to his mantle. Suton has lit up the tournament, raising his 9.9 points per game in the season to 12.2 in the tournament, including games of 20 and 19 points in huge efforts against Kansas and Louisville, respectively. He also raised his rebounds from 8.1 to 10.6, including three double-doubles in his last five games. Like all of the Spartans, he plays great defense, but it got him into foul trouble against UConn, when his 4 fouls limited his productivity and held him to only 4 points. He's the Bosnian Bombardier, and also a senior looking to end his career on a high note, but I can't really pick someone who's been great in the last few games over a guy who's done it for four straight years.

ADVANTAGE: UNC

BENCH: This is a difficult thing to really gauge. UNC's starters are just so good and have played huge minutes all tournament that the bench players haven't gotten into many games or logged many significant minutes. Against Nova, one player scored off the UNC bench: forward Ed Davis with his monster 5 points. Guard Bobby Frasor spells Lawson, but he's nowhere near on Lawson's level. The Tar Heels have a very talented team and can go deep, they just haven't, which could be a bad thing when these rusty players need in the game and can't perform. In total contrast, Izzo makes use of his bench to keep his players fresh. Michigan State's bench outscored UConn's 33-7, a tremendous margin. The Spartans share the load, which could work in their favor. While I would assume that the UNC bench is just as talented at Michigan State's, the fact that they contribute so little in games makes this decision easy.

ADVANTAGE: Michigan State

And there you have it, a 4-2 edge in favor of the UNC Tar Heels. UNC loses the Battle of the Benches, but that won't matter when three of their starters score 20 points and they jump all over the Spartans from the very start of the game, as they have done in their last three blow-out wins. One could argue that Michigan State has the edge when it comes to the fan-base, since Ford Field is only 90 miles from the Spartans' campus in East Lansing. While it may be easier for Michigan State to drive to the Final Four, from what I saw last night the Tar Heels had a pretty good showing in the stands. Not that it would matter anyway, because the Tar Heels are used to playing in tough environments on the road: nothing can possibly be worse than facing the Cameron Crazies in Durham, and the Tar Heels smashed the Dukies 101-87 in February.

And lots of people wonder if this will be a repeat of the game in December when UNC bitch-slapped Michigan State 98-63 on Ford Field. At that time, Michigan State came off a long road-trip and dropped this game, the fourth of that week. UNC looked strong, but the Spartans were also missing Suton, who was out with arthroscopic surgery at the time. The Spartans are back, and it's hard to say that they're 35 points worse than UNC.

Still, even with Suton and the "home-court advantage" and a day's rest, they're 30 points worse than the Tar Heels.

Look for UNC to topple Michigan State and run away with it. I'm tired of these damn Spartans hanging around, and there's nothing I'll enjoy more than the Tar Heels burying them. Plus, I'll win my bracket pool and take home $60. Dolla-dolla bill, y'all.

Michigan State, you better check yourself before you wreck yourself. UNC is coming to town.

Like a boss.


- Beck