A Pre-combine Analysis of the Browns 1st Round Pick (Paull)

Since this is my first post on the Dawgstaph, I feel I should introduce myself; I am not a Browns fan. Nope, not at all. I root for the 6x world champion Pittsburgh Steelers and have all my life. I bask in your misery season after season, Browns fans, and heartily enjoy it. However, if there’s one thing I enjoy as much as my Steelers, it’s good ol’ objective offseason NFL coverage. Combine, draft, free agency-- I shower in that shit. So I plan to play the role of a McShay/Kiper with a little twist of John Clayton on this blog-- and just to prove my objectivity towards the subject, and since a number of Browns fans read this blog, my first post will break down the Browns 1st round pick in the upcoming NFL draft.

Team Needs
For a 4-12 team, the Brown-oh’s do have a fair amount of talent on their roster. A QB of the future, an elite LT, dominant NT, and a dangerous weapon at TE are all in place--congrats. But obviously there are some holes for Mangenius to fill or they wouldn’t have gone 4-12. Braylon Edwards forgot how to play football last year. I know this first hand because I drafted him in my fantasy league. He obviously still has the same skills he had in ‘07 when he caught 16 TD’s and hopefully Mangini can help those skills reappear. Regardless, WR is still a position of need. A weapon who isn’t Dante Stallworth (who runs routes like a blind drunkard) on the other side would help Brady tremendously. As would a potent running game, however I don’t approve of drafting any of this year’s backs with the #5 pick. Sorry Beanie. On defense, the newly revamped DL still gave up 150 rushing yds per game. That’s not good and Robraire Smith should probably be replaced, but Tyson Jackson is the top 3-4 end in this year’s draft and the value doesn’t fit at the #5 spot. In a development that surely will have Chandler singing “How Will I Live Without You”, Andra Davis is an unrestricted FA at one of the ILB spots. He probably has something to do with that woeful run D and should be replaced. Leon Williams is a player I heard a lot about out of the draft a few years back, but I’m assuming if he was really special he would have beat out Andra for the job. The outside backers (Wimbley, McGinest, Hall) combined for 8 sacks. That’s pathetic. The major responsibility of an OLB in the 3-4 is to get to the QB. They don’t-- Wimbley has struggled since a strong rookie year and this is definitely a position in need of an upgrade as well as one that can usually be filled by a younger player, as opposed to say, CB, where young players often struggle. And they have for the Browns. While Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald show promise, the Browns allowed too many big plays and McDonald’s metrics were amongst the laggards of the league. However, I feel this position would be better addressed the free agency or a trade in order to add experience to the secondary rather than just more raw talent (Note: Leigh Bodden is available!!). Resigning Sean Jones should be a priority. He’s shown flashes of brilliance and there simply aren’t many candidates to replace him.
Overall, I’d list WR, ILB, and OLB as the major positions of need that the Browns should consider addressing in the 1st round.. Taking one of the elite tackles to start on the right side is tempting, but it would be a luxury. 4-12 teams don’t get to make luxury picks.

First Round Candidates
Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech - Crabtree is arguably the top prospect overall in this year’s class. His presence would provide the Browns with a big-time target regardless of how Braylon fairs next season. Best case scenario: They have a Fitzgerald-Boldin type duo, Worst Case: At least they still have one dominant receiver. However, he likely won’t be around after Seattle picks at #4. Additionally, I think the Browns would be better suited with a speedier, more versatile target like a Jeremy Maclin or Percy Harvin to compliment K2 and Braylon (assuming he does turn it around.)

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - This kid is dyn-o-mite. He is a playmaker in the mold of a Desean Jackson or Ted Ginn, only more polished as a receiver. As it stands right now, he would be a bit of a reach with the #5 pick (though that could change with an electrifying 40 time at the combine). I think Cleveland could trade back to say #10 and still land him. My only downside to making this pick is the success rate of first round receivers-- historically one of the lowest.

Malcom Jenkins, CB, Ohio State - I previously stated my opinion that the Browns shouldn’t look to the draft (or at least the 1st round) to address their need at corner. That being said, this wouldn’t be a bad pick. Jenkins brings the combination of size, speed, and coverage skills any team would covet at CB. He is by far the best corner in this class (Vontae Davis is the second coming of Mike Rumph ) and is sure to be a top 10 pick. If Cleveland keeps this pick, they have to take a long look at Malcom X-factor (my nickname). It comes down to whether you want your top 3 corners to be relatively inexperienced youngsters.

Aaron Maybin/Brian Orakpo/Everette Browns, 3-4 OLB, Penn St/Texas/Florida St - It’s hard to separate these 3. They’re all converted, undersized DE’s in a 4-3 scheme who are relatively untested in coverage. However, they all know how to apply pressure to the QB-- something the Browns desperately need. Maybe the combine will help to put some distance between these 3, but as it currently stands I couldn’t justify taking any of them with the #5 pick simply because at least one should still be around by about pick 15. It may be worth trading back and taking whichever of them hangs around the longest.

Brian Cushing, OLB, USC - Cushing deserves to be listed separate from the previous three OLB’s. This is because he is a much more versatile prospect. He has shown ability to drop back in coverage as well as rush the QB, while still possessing the versatility to step inside if needed. He isn’t the same kind of physically imposing player that the aforementioned three are (Orakpo could have been a Monstar), but James Harrison showed in the Super Bowl just how dangerous a pass rusher who can also cover can be. He doesn’t fit at #5 but could be worth moving back for.

Aaron Curry, ILB, Wake Forrest - I have no knocks on Curry as a player. He is, by most accounts, the safest pick in the draft. I do have a problem drafting an ILB this high. Every year quality inside backers tend to be found in rounds 2-4. Moreover, there is an abundance of elite players at that position in the league-- many of whom could be available. Ray Lewis, Bart Scott, Channing Crowder, and Mike Peterson are all UFA’s this summer.

BJ Raji, DT, Boston College - This isn’t a position of need with Pro Bowler Shaun Rogers on the roster. However, draft experts always tell us two things. 1) Draft the best player available. 2) You can’t have enough talented big men. Raji’s stock has been white hot after a dominant showing at the Senior Bowl. He could be dangled as trade bate or learn the position from Rogers and play in a rotational role for a season or two. This is a thin class at DT, particularly with guys who could play NT in a 3-4. I wouldn’t be opposed to snatching him up and having a great insurance policy on Rogers.

The Pick
Teams will be looking to trade in to the top 10 for both Sanchez and Raji. If I were GM, I’d find a partner and move back in the first round to select Cushing and pick up an extra 2nd rounder. In the second, you could really sure up a weak spot by selecting a pass rusher like Clint Sintim or Larry English and provide offensive help with a either receiver like Hakeem Nicks and Brian Robiskie, or a RB like Shonn Greene.

-ZP3